Airbus has published its 2024-2043 General Market Forecast, predicting that over the next 20 years international airline traffic will more than double, driving demand for over 42,000 new aircraft deliveries.
In the immediate future, Airbus says that it expects traffic to grow at circa 8% per year in order to catch up with lost growth over the pandemic, before reconnecting with an annual growth of approximately 3.6% from 2027 onwards.
New aircraft deliveries (which in Airbus’ GMF metric only includes passenger aircraft over 100 seats and Freighters over 10 tons’ payload) will increasingly replace older, less fuel efficient aircraft and over the next 20 years the planemaker forecasts a demand for more than 42,000 new deliveries.
Today, Airbus says that around 30% of the world’s in service aircraft fleet are of the latest generation. Replacing the remaining 70% of older generation aircraft, combined with more efficient ways to operate aircraft, i.e. through the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and emergent power sources such as hydrogen and hybridisation, are key to the decarbonisation of the aviation industry, along with the use of carbon capture technologies. In order to achieve the desired decarbonisation, Airbus says that around 45% of new aircraft deliveries (18,640) over the next two decades will be required to replace the older generation fleet, while the remainder will be to accommodate industry growth. Airbus says that all of its new generation aircraft are currently 50% SAF capable, while it aims to reach 100% SAF capability by 2030.
Looking at demand by region, Airbus says that China and India, and more generally Asia-Pacific as a whole, will power growth, further shifting aviation’s centre of gravity’ towards Asia. Europe and CIS will become the third largest region, with North American in fourth. Airbus’ projected global in-service fleet size is 48,230 airliners, split roughly 80:20 single aisle/widebody jets.
Airbus’ current order backlog stands at 7,688 single aisle (7,128 A320; 560 A220), 842 widebody (648 A350; 194 A330neo), and 55 freighters (A350F).
